進入“金九銀十”傳統需求旺季以來，宏觀因素影響權重有所下降，市場交投重心從宏觀政策增量預期轉向旺季終端需求兌現。

　　近(jin)兩(liang)周(zhou)，鋼(gang)材(cai)表(biao)觀(guan)需(xu)求(qiu)恢(hui)複(fu)程(cheng)度(du)偏(pian)弱(ruo)
，五(wu)大(da)鋼(gang)材(cai)品(pin)種(zhong)的(de)產(chan)量(liang)持(chi)續(xu)下(xia)滑(hua)，庫(ku)存(cun)端(duan)整(zheng)體(ti)維(wei)持(chi)去(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)態(tai)勢(shi)，短(duan)期(qi)終(zhong)端(duan)需(xu)求(qiu)壓(ya)力(li)仍(reng)未(wei)顯(xian)現(xian)，鋼(gang)廠(chang)主(zhu)動(dong)減(jian)產(chan)的(de)動(dong)力(li)依(yi)舊(jiu)不(bu)足(zu)。其(qi)中(zhong)，螺(luo)紋(wen)鋼(gang)單(dan)周(zhou)表(biao)觀(guan)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)仍(reng)低(di)於(yu)8yuefengaodian，rezhajuanbanbiaoguanxuqiuliangzelianxuliangzhouxiahua，gangcaiduanjiagegengduoshougonggeiduanshousuozhicheng
，luowengangjiqilirunweichixiaofukuisunzhuangtai。feiganggonggeibuzuwentiyirancunzai，daozhiduanliuchenggangchangpingdianlirunchixukuisun，luowengangpanmianzhengtizaiduanliuchengpingdianchengbenheluowengangxianhuojiagezhijianzhaifubodong，bancaikucunkuaisuleijiqiegaoyuquniantongqihuoyinfagangcaikucunjiegouxingmaodun。changliuchenggangchangkaigonglvhegaoluliyonglvbaochigaowei

，yuancailiaogangxingxuqiu、guoqingjiejiaqigangchangbukuxuqiujunduitiekuangshixianhuojiagexingchengzhicheng。tanyuansujiageshougonggeiduanshousuoyingxiang，zhangfugengweixianzhu。zaizhongduanxuqiuzengliangyouxianqiegangchanglirunpiandiqingkuangxia，tanyuansuguzhideshangshengzaiyidingchengdushangyizhiletieyuansujiagedeshangxingkongjian。

　　產(chan)業(ye)方(fang)麵(mian)，中(zhong)期(qi)來(lai)看(kan)，房(fang)地(di)產(chan)銷(xiao)售(shou)端(duan)持(chi)續(xu)性(xing)仍(reng)然(ran)偏(pian)弱(ruo)
，難(nan)以(yi)刺(ci)激(ji)房(fang)企(qi)拿(na)地(di)意(yi)願(yuan)。同(tong)時(shi)，銷(xiao)售(shou)端(duan)向(xiang)拿(na)地(di)端(duan)傳(chuan)導(dao)的(de)周(zhou)期(qi)較(jiao)長(chang)，新(xin)開(kai)工(gong)數(shu)據(ju)同(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)幅(fu)較(jiao)大(da)，預(yu)計(ji)旺(wang)季(ji)房(fang)地(di)產(chan)用(yong)鋼(gang)需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)量(liang)有(you)限(xian)，專(zhuan)項(xiang)債(zhai)加(jia)速(su)發(fa)行(xing)及(ji)城(cheng)投(tou)債(zhai)務(wu)化(hua)解(jie)或(huo)維(wei)持(chi)基(ji)建(jian)用(yong)鋼(gang)需(xu)求(qiu)。因(yin)此(ci)，整(zheng)體(ti)來(lai)看(kan)，終(zhong)端(duan)需(xu)求(qiu)對(dui)鋼(gang)材(cai)價(jia)格(ge)的(de)提(ti)振(zhen)作(zuo)用(yong)有(you)限(xian)。

　　政策方麵，政策端影響再度走弱，市場對粗鋼平控政策執行及執行力度預期均偏弱。一方麵，政策強調市場化機製調節。8月21日，工信部、國家發展改革委等七部門聯合印發的《鋼鐵行業穩增長工作方案》指出，要“形成需求牽引供給

、供給創造需求的更高水平動態平衡”。在供需“動態平衡”格局下，粗鋼平控政策影響程度減弱。另一方麵
，粗鋼產量同比增量顯著減少，政策執行影響力降低。國家統計局數據顯示
，8月份我國粗鋼產量為8641萬噸
，同比增長3.2%
，增幅環比收窄8.3個百分點。1月—8月份我國粗鋼產量為71293萬噸，同比增長2.6%（1806.7萬噸）。8月份我國生鐵產量為7462萬噸，同比增長4.8%，增幅環比收窄5.4個百分點。1月—8月份我國生鐵產量為60359萬噸，同比增長3.7%（2153.6萬噸）。

　　供gong應ying方fang麵mian，主zhu流liu礦kuang山shan處chu於yu季ji節jie性xing高gao發fa運yun周zhou期qi，普pu氏shi鐵tie礦kuang石shi價jia格ge指zhi數shu持chi續xu上shang漲zhang

，刺ci激ji外wai礦kuang發fa運yun量liang保bao持chi高gao位wei
，國guo產chan礦kuang保bao持chi平ping穩wen。本ben周zhou全quan球qiu鐵tie礦kuang石shi發fa運yun量liang處chu於yu中zhong位wei偏pian高gao水shui平ping
，主zhu流liu礦kuang山shan發fa運yun總zong量liang連lian續xu6zhougaoyuquniantongqi，feizhuliukuangshanfayunliangyousuohuiluo，daogangliangchudihouhuishengzhizhongweishuiping，zaiciqingkuangxiagongyingduanshousuokenengxingpianxiao。zhongqilaikan，gongyingzengjiaduijiageshangxingzaochengjiaodadeyali，dangqianbaxidanshuiheguchuyujijiexinggaofaqi，diejiaaodaliyabihebituoheFMG礦山財年目標同比均有所提高

，第三、四季度預計四大礦山發運量季環比增加3600萬噸，其中發往中國的鐵礦石量季環比增加2800萬噸。

　　xuqiufangmian，youyucugangpingkongzhengceshangweishijiluodi，gangchangfuchanshuliangjixuzengjia，tieshuichanliangweichigaowei
，duanqijieqianbukuxuqiuzhichengxianhuojiage，dangangchangyinglimianlianxu6周縮小
，鋼廠利潤持續收縮，且當前鋼廠燒結礦庫存已經接近春節、五一假期庫存高點，鋼廠繼續補庫的力度不足，鐵礦石需求麵臨見頂回落壓力。

　　kucunfangmian，gangchangzhengtiweichidikucunjiegou


，zaijieqianbukudequdongxia，gangchangshugangliangbaochigaowei，benqidaogangliangdafuhuishengdixiaoxuqiudezengjia，gangkoukucunxiaofuxiajiang，danyouyuguoneixuqiushuipingzhengtipiangao，gangkouleikudechixuxingjiaocha，houqiguanzhugangchangzailirunpianchaxiadezhudongjianchanhezhengcexianchanxiadexuqiubiandong。

　　bizherenwei，dangqiantiekuangshixuqiuweichigaowei
，duanqibukuxuqiuzhichengxianhuojiage，dangangchangduanlirunchixushousuo，diejiajiagejianguanzaiduquyan，duanqitiekuangshijiageshangxingchengya。houqiguanzhugangchangyinkuisundezifaxianchanjiwangjiduixianqidexuqiuchengse。yuancailiaotiekuangshijiagejianguanyalijiada
，gangchangjiqilirunyijingchuyukuisunzhuangtai，xianshixuqiurengcunzaijiaodabuquedingxing，tiekuangshi01合約短期繼續做多價值偏低，下一步應關注終端需求韌性和增量變動情況，中期應關注粗鋼平控政策落地的時間節點和執行力度。