首先
，焦煤供給偏緊有望好轉。2018nianxiabannianyilai
，zuoweijiaotanshangyouyuanliaodejiaomeigonggeichixupianjin，xianhuojiageweichigaoweiyunxing，zaochengjiaotanchengbenxianshangyi，dibuyoujiaoqiangdechengbenzhicheng。jiaomeigonggeipianjinzhuyaoshiguoneichanliangpiandihejinkoushouxian。dancongjiaomeigonggeidejijiexingguilvlaikan，chunjishimeikuangdeshengchanwangji，meikuangkucunjiangjijiexingzengjia
，congertuoleijiaomeijiage。youqishilianghuizhihou，meikuanghuoquanmianfuchan，jiaomeichanliangyouwangtisheng，gonggeipianjindejumianjiangyousuohuanjie，duijiaotandechengbenzhichengjianruo。

　　其次，焦炭供給整體偏寬鬆。目前，各地焦化廠大多滿負荷生產
，焦爐產能利用率已連續四周維持在80%以上
，保持近一年來的高位。隨著3月yue采cai暖nuan季ji限xian產chan的de結jie束shu，在zai缺que少shao一yi定ding行xing政zheng幹gan預yu以yi及ji焦jiao化hua利li潤run尚shang佳jia的de情qing況kuang下xia

，焦jiao爐lu將jiang維wei持chi較jiao高gao的de產chan能neng利li用yong率lv，焦jiao炭tan高gao供gong給gei大da概gai率lv將jiang繼ji續xu延yan續xu。

　　最後，焦炭產能產量或“不降反增”。2018年以來，“去產能”yizhishijiaotanxingyederedianhuati，yeshiyingxiangjiaotanjiagebianhuadezhongyaoyinsu。womenduijiaotanquchannengzhengceshulihoufaxian
，quchannengdezhuyaomudezaiyujiejuehuanjingwuranwentidetongshi
，tuidongxingyezhuanxingshengji。zaiquchannengdejuticuoshishang，yunxing10年以上的4.3米及以下焦爐淘汰是重點。但是

，一方麵由於符合該淘汰標準的焦爐涉及的企業、產能眾多，若嚴格執行對行業影響較大，預計政策執行前將經曆充分的醞釀期，執行的時間也可能延後；另一方麵由於焦炭行業去產能與新增產能並舉，山西部分新增產能將於今年9月至10月期間投產。若去產能執行力度偏弱，淘汰產能少於新增產能
，可能導致焦炭產能產量“不降反增”。

　　zongzhi，duanqilaikan，youyuqianqigangchangdejiaotankucunchuyujiaogaoshuiping
，zaijinqiduodigangchangyingezhongyuanyinxianchanhuotingchanhou
，duiyuanliaoduandejiaotanjinyibuxingchenglikong。tongshi，muqiangangchangliruntongbichuyupiandishuiping
，duijiaotanjiagedierlundetizhangdichuqingxujiaozhong，xingchengduanqilikong。